Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.958652 4.364702 4.846843 5.478764 6.315333 7.438501 9.181422
2025-01-19 3.393387 3.865176 4.470612 5.350881 6.703066 8.973526 14.231414
2025-01-26 3.167164 3.697857 4.422113 5.574574 7.627926 12.193076 38.182541
2025-02-02 3.049084 3.637498 4.486383 5.962254 9.073323 19.817315 NaN
2025-02-09 2.883662 3.481590 4.372004 6.006118 9.878067 31.219892 NaN
2025-02-16 2.758884 3.365849 4.295524 6.089865 10.890342 78.914438 NaN
2025-02-23 2.588803 3.165763 4.055157 5.792117 10.582897 124.225619 NaN
2025-03-02 2.498171 3.076312 3.984801 5.824383 11.427096 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.411113 2.984561 3.898787 5.802614 12.106877 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.311416 2.866354 3.755585 5.626058 12.018944 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.272606 2.839479 3.767316 5.804631 13.869372 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.182079 2.725879 3.615494 5.566818 13.261286 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.086849 2.603892 3.446949 5.283654 12.350938 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.018479 2.521794 3.345447 5.153288 12.299379 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.998837 2.515451 3.378626 5.357988 14.668157 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.995722 2.534923 3.460466 5.713091 19.956769 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.958294 2.496094 3.428790 5.753122 22.763162 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.927023 2.465702 3.410649 5.829510 27.374883 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.864859 2.381495 3.282516 5.557436 23.790292 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.834760 2.349639 3.255123 5.586984 27.424301 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.801997 2.311944 3.213715 5.567051 30.419441 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.758343 2.254504 3.130228 5.405111 28.411403 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.745957 2.248995 3.149277 5.568898 41.287641 NaN NaN